Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
Inventory management (in other words, logistics) is an integral part of the work of firms, companies and organizations. We are talking about stocks of raw materials, fuel, tools, components, semi-finished products, finished products for industrial (or agricultural) firms, about stocks of goods to distribution centers, warehouses, shops, workplaces sellers, finally consumers. Stocks spent all the time and supplemented on various rules adopted in the firm. Optimization of these rules, ie, optimal inventory management, gives a big economic effect. The mathematical theory of inventory management, based on the models of movement of flows of goods, is an important area of economic-mathematical research. The classical model of inventory management proposed in 1915 by F. Harris is one of the simplest and most illustrative examples of application of the mathematical apparatus for decision-making in the economic field. This model is commonly referred to as the Wilson model, because this model became known after the publication of R.G. Wilson in 1934. The formula of the optimum batch size (the so-called "the formula of the square root"), obtained in the Wilson model, is widely used on various stages of production and distribution, since this formula is practically useful for decision-making in the inventory management, in particular, for generating significant economic effect. However, contrary to popular belief, by means of this formula it is impossible to calculate the optimal batch size (although it is a necessary step on the path of its finding). In strict economic-mathematical analysis of Wilson model, conducted in the article, it is shown that the formula of square root does not give the optimal batch size. We have given the algorithm for calculating the optimal batch size. It has been found that the formula of the square root gives asymptotically optimal plan. We have studied the stability of the conclusions in the economic-mathematical model and considered an example of the practical application of the classical model of inventory management
Requirements for the professional training of сontrollers include, in particular, the requirements for an intelligent tool that controllers must possess. One of such tools is the econometrics. Organization of training, in particular, preparation of curricula, programs, teaching materials and textbooks, involves discussion of the scope and content of the relevant discipline. We have given the description of the econometric tools of controlling, including the courses of "Econometrics-1" and "Econometrics-2", which the Department of the IBM-2 "Economics and organization of production" is on the faculty "Engineering and Business Management" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We have discussed the external environment of econometrics and the necessary changes in it. For example, the course of "Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics" is the basis for the study of econometrics. However, it has to be brought into line with modern requirements. In particular, it is necessary to consider such things as random elements with values in an arbitrary space, empirical and theoretical means in such spaces, to prove the laws of large numbers in general statements. Simultaneously with the specified extension course content is reasonable to exclude from the program methods based on those assumptions are not met in the concrete economic situations. In particular, we have to eliminate the one-sample and two-sample Student's t tests and replace them with the corresponding nonparametric tests. We do not need the "classical" and geometric probability, etc. We have given the importance of the problem of constructing integral indicators in various problems of econometrics; issues of analysis of the situation by means of a system of indicators are discussed in detail
The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate
the great importance in today's world of strategic
management, methods of analyses of innovations
and investments and the role of the theory of
decision-making in these economic disciplines. We
have given the retrospective analysis of the
development of nuclear physics research. For the
development of fundamental and applied science in
the second half of the twentieth century, we had a
very great importance of the two events: the
decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy
nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter
from Einstein) and the coincidence in time between
the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb
and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing
of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the
developments in science and technology for the
entire second half of the twentieth century. For the
first time in the entire history of the world the
leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that
fundamental research can bring great practical
benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of
countries). Namely, they can give the brand new
super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a
broad organizational and financial support of
fundamental and deriving from them applied
research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental
and applied research on the development and
effective use of new technology and technical
progress. We consider the development of
mathematical methods of research and information
technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial
intelligence"
Statistical methods are widely used in domestic
feasibility studies. However, for most managers,
economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is
because modern statistical methods are not taught in
the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing
on the statistical methods for economic and
feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of
science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are
scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in
Economics are awarded to series of researches in
econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific
and practical work and especially the teaching of
econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often,
individual particular constructions replace
econometrics in general, such as those related to
regression analysis. In econometrics we select three
types of scientific and applied activities:
development and study of methods of applied
statistics, taking into account the specifics of
economic data; development and study of
econometric models, in accordance with the specific
needs of economic science and practice; the use of
econometric methods for statistical analysis of
specific economic data. This article describes these
three types of scientific and applied activities. We
discuss the specificity of economic data. We show
the importance of economic non-numeric values. We
discuss the statistics of interval data - scientific
direction at the joint of metrology and statistics. We
give the representation of the econometric models.
Problems of application of econometric methods are
considered as an example of inflation. We discuss
the statistics and econometrics as the field of
scientific and practical activities. We have examined
econometric methods in practical and training
activities
The basic ideas of the developed by us solidary
information economy are analyzed (the original
name - the nonformal informational economy of
the future). Its use as the base of modern
organizational-economic theory in exchange for the
term of “economics” is proved. The core of
researches in the field of the NIEF is forecasting of
development of the future society and its economy,
working out of organizational-economic methods
and models, necessary for the future and intended
for increase of efficiency of managerial processes.
The economy is a science how to make, instead of,
how to divide profit. The basic kernel of the
modern economic theory is an engineering
economy. As the economic component of state
ideology of Russia we offer solidary information
economy. According to the solidary information
economy the modern information technology and
decision theory allow, based on the “open network
society”, to build information and communication
system designed to identify the needs of people and
the organization of production in order to meet
them. To implement this feature we must have
political will of leadership of economic unit, aimed
at transforming the management of this economic
unit. In particular, as is already happening in all
developed countries, the Russian state should
become a major player in the economy
The statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the model of the sample as a set of independent identically distributed random variables. In this article we have considered the basic probabilistic models for obtaining non-numeric data. Namely, the models of dichotomous data, results of paired comparisons, binary relations, ranks, the objects of general nature. We have discussed the various options of probabilistic models and their practical use. For example, the basic probabilistic model of dichotomous data - Bernoulli vector (Lucian) i.e. final sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, for which the probabilities of success may be different. The mathematical tools of solutions of various statistical problems associated with the Bernoulli vectors are useful for the analysis of random tolerances; random sets with independent elements; in processing the results of independent pairwise comparisons; statistical methods for analyzing the accuracy and stability of technological processes; in the analysis and synthesis of statistical quality control plans (for dichotomous characteristics); the processing of marketing and sociological questionnaires (with closed questions like "yes" - "no"); the processing of socio-psychological and medical data, in particular, the responses to psychological tests such as MMPI (used in particular in the problems of human resource management), and analysis of topographic maps (used for the analysis and prediction of the affected areas for technological disasters, distributing corrosion, propagation environmentally harmful pollutants, various diseases (including myocardial infarction), in other situations), etc.
Some estimators of the probability density function
in spaces of arbitrary nature are used for various
tasks in statistics of non-numerical data. Systematic
exposition of the theory of such estimators has been
started in our articles [3, 4]. This article is a direct
continuation of these works [3, 4]. We will regularly
use references to conditions and theorems of the
articles [3, 4], in which introduced several types of
nonparametric estimators of the probability density.
We have studied linear estimators. In this article, we
consider particular cases - kernel density estimates in
discrete spaces. When estimating the density of the
one-dimensional random variable, kernel estimators
become the Parzen-Rosenblatt estimators. Under
different conditions, we prove the consistency and
asymptotic normality of kernel density estimators.
We have introduced the concept of "preferred rate
differences" and are studied nuclear density
estimators based on it. We have introduced and
studied natural affinity measures which are used in
the analysis of the asymptotic behavior of kernel
density estimators. Kernel density estimates are
considered for sequences of spaces with measures.
We give the conditions under which the difference
between the densities of probability distributions and
of the mathematical expectations of their nuclear
estimates uniformly tends to 0. Is established the
uniform convergence of the variances. We find the
conditions on the kernel functions, in which take
place these theorems about uniform convergence. As
examples, there are considered the spaces of fuzzy
subsets of finite sets and the spaces of all subsets of
finite sets. We give the condition to support the use
of kernel density estimation in finite spaces. We
discuss the counterexample of space of rankings in
which the application of kernel density estimators
can not be correct
We have allocated the basic sources of uncertainty in various industrial and economic situations. We have also considered the role and the tasks of forecasting in the management of industrial companies, particularly in the rocket and space industry. We
have discussed the methods of organizational and economic forecasting - statistical, expert, combined, including foresight and given some suggestions for improving the forecasting and planning mechanisms for practical use when creating space systems
In practical use of methods of applied statistics we do not apply separate methods for describing data, estimation, testing hypotheses, but we must use deployed whole procedures - the so-called "statistical technology". The concept of "statistical technology" is similar to the concept of "technological process" in the theory and practice of organization of production. It is quite natural that some statistical technology can better meet the needs of the researcher (user, statistics) than others, some - are modern, and others - outdated, some properties are studied, and the others - no. It is important to stress that a qualified and efficient use of statistical methods - this is not one single statistical hypothesis testing and estimation of characteristics or parameters of a given distribution from fixed family. This kind of operations - only the individual building blocks that make up the statistical technology. The procedure of the statistical data analysis - is an information process, in other words, one or other information technology. Statistical information is subject to a variety of operations (series, parallel, or more complex schemes). In this article we discuss statistical technologies and the problem of "docking" algorithms. We introduce the concept of "high statistical technologies" and then we prove the necessity of their development and application. As the examples we have given the researches of Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We have also considered a number of education problems in domain of high statistical technologies
This article is devoted to the investigations of our research team built for independent collection and examination the information about prices, ie to study the real inflation. The approach to measuring the rise in prices is based on selecting and fixing tool of economists and managers - the consumer basket which does not change during the time. On the basis of physiological consumption norms of the Institute of Nutrition (Russian Academy of medical Sciences) we made up the minimum consumer basket, ie we set annual consumption on food staples required to maintain normal functioning of the human body. In 1993-2015 we carried out an independent price collection. We obtained values of the consumer basket and inflation indices. We give the comparison with the data of official statistics. Our work is aimed at the elimination of Rosstat's monopoly in calculating the index of inflation, the minimum subsistence level and the real disposable income of the population. Using the same consumer basket makes it possible to compare the results of calculations for different time periods. That is why our works compare favorably to the approach of the official statistics. We have given a more detailed analysis of inflation in the XXI century. We have also briefly reviewed the use of inflation indices in the analysis of problems of households, organizations and production firms, as well as the country as a whole