Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
In 1970 in the journal publications of "Forbes" and
"Business week" the term of "startup" appeared,
which later became popular in the scientific and
business literature. Startups are the organizations,
which create a new product or service under
conditions of high uncertainty. In the last 25-30
years, due to Russia's transition from a planned
economy to the mixed, many researchers and
practitioners in the field of management, economics
and entrepreneurship are concerned of some
questions of small business, including production. It
is particularly acute problem of deaths of Russian
small businesses: only three out of a hundred small
businesses manage to survive for more than 3 years.
In addition, one of the main reasons, why we have
such statistics, is management deficiencies and
administrative errors, which are studied in this
article. We are primarily interested in small
manufacturing plants and problems of development
in the early stages of the life cycle. In the literature,
it has been given just little attention. A small
production company is a company associated with
the production organization or incorporation of the
product / technology in the production process. We
regard the small production companies at an early
stage of development, working in the field of
mechanical engineering, instrumentation, energy,
telecommunications, robotics, materials production.
In this work, we analyze the first foreign and then
domestic research on small business, discuss the
problems of management of small industrial
enterprises in the early stages of the life cycle (based
on the results of our questionnaire studies) and as an
example, consider the story of a startup - All-Union
Center of statistical methods and Informatics of
Central Board of the All-Union economic society
(now - Institute of high statistical technologies and econometrics of Bauman Moscow State Technical
University)
In the training courses on the theory of probability and
mathematical statistics there are various parametric
families of distributions of numerical random variables
considered. Namely, we have been studying the
families of normal distributions, log-normal
distributions, exponential distributions, gamma
distributions, Weibull-Gnedenko distributions, etc. All
of them depend on one, two or three parameters.
Therefore, for a complete description of the distribution
it is sufficient to know or estimate one, two or three
numbers. Parametric theory of mathematical statistics is
widely developed, where it is assumed that the
distribution of observations belong to one or another
parametric family of distributions. This tradition comes
from Karl Pearson, who in the early twentieth century
proposed the use of four parametric family of
distributions. The above families of distributions - are
the subsets of a four-parametric family of Pearson.
Unfortunately, parametric families exist only in the
minds of the authors of textbooks on probability theory
and mathematical statistics. In real life, they are not.
Therefore, modern applied statistics and econometrics
mainly use non-parametric methods, in which the
distribution of observations can have arbitrary form.
First, on an example of a normal distribution, we are
discussing the impossibility of practical use of
parametric families of distributions to describe specific
statistical data. We give the results of research of
metrologists and estimation of convergence in limit
theorems. Then we discuss how the parametric methods
can use for reject outlying observations. It is very
unstable the significance levels for a fixed rejection rule
and the parameter of the rejection rules for a fixed level
of significance. Consequently, the rejection of the
classic rules of mathematical statistics is not sciencebased
In various applications, it is necessary to analyze
several expert orderings, i.e. clustered rankings
objects of examination. These areas include
technical studies, ecology, management, economics,
sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects can be some
samples of products, technologies, mathematical
models, projects, job applicants and others. In the
construction of the final opinion of the commission
of experts, it is important to find clustered ranking
that averages responses of experts. This article
describes a number of methods for clustered
rankings averaging, among which there is the
method of Kemeny median calculation, based on the
use of Kemeny distance. This article focuses on the
computing side of the final ranking among the
expert opinions problem by means of median
Kemeny calculation. There are currently no exact
algorithms for finding the set of all Kemeny
medians for a given number of permutations
(rankings without connections), only exhaustive
search. However, there are various approaches to
search for a part or all medians, which are analyzed
in this study. Zhikharev's heuristic algorithms serve
as a good tool to study the set of all Kemeny
medians: identifying any connections in mutual
locations of the medians in relation to the
aggregated expert opinions set (a variety of expert
answers permutations). Litvak offers one precise
and one heuristic approaches to calculate the median
among all possible sets of solutions. This article
introduces the necessary concepts, analyzes the
advantages of median Kemeny among other possible searches of expert orderings. It identifies
the comparative strengths and weaknesses of
examined computational ways
Statistical methods are widely used in domestic
feasibility studies. However, for most managers,
economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is
due to the fact that modern statistical methods are
not taught in the universities. We discuss the
situation, focusing on the statistical methods for
economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics.
In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful
place. There are scientific journals in econometrics,
Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of
researches in econometrics. The situation in the field
of scientific and practical work and especially the
teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged.
Often, individual particular constructions replace
econometrics in general, such as those related to
regression analysis. The article is devoted to
econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course
begins with a discussion of the structure of modern
econometrics, the connections between applied
statistics and econometric methods. We consider
sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the
elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of
testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity.
We have given the concepts of regression analysis,
econometric classification methods, modern
measurement theory. The important places are
occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data
(including fuzzy sets and their links with random
sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem
of the stability of statistical procedures with respect
to the tolerances of input data and model
prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the
econometric methods of expert research and quality
control, analysis and forecasting of time series,
econometrics of forecasting and risks are given
In 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was
represented by a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research in the field of organizational
and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics.
There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied
statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical
methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and
expert data in problems of economics and
management. We consider it necessary to develop
organizational and economic support for solving
specific application area, such as the space industry,
start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods.
The same requirements apply to the teaching of the
respective disciplines. In the development of
curricula and working programs, we must be based
on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of
research. In this study, we present the basic
information about a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. We start with a brief
formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in
this article focuses primarily on the scientific field
of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of
economy", including organizational and economic
and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics
and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis,
cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the
basic concepts. We talk about the development of a
new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison
of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical
methods of research. We give information about the
educational literature, prepared in accordance with
the new paradigm of mathematical methods of
researches
One of the "points of growth" of applied statistics is
methods of reducing the dimension of statistical
data. They are increasingly used in the analysis of
data in specific applied research, such as sociology.
We investigate the most promising methods to
reduce the dimensionality. The principal
components are one of the most commonly used
methods to reduce the dimensionality. For visual
analysis of data are often used the projections of
original vectors on the plane of the first two
principal components. Usually the data structure is
clearly visible, highlighted compact clusters of
objects and separately allocated vectors. The
principal components are one method of factor
analysis. The new idea of factor analysis in
comparison with the method of principal
components is that, based on loads, the factors
breaks up into groups. In one group of factors, new
factor is combined with a similar impact on the
elements of the new basis. Then each group is
recommended to leave one representative.
Sometimes, instead of the choice of representative
by calculation, a new factor that is central to the
group in question. Reduced dimension occurs during
the transition to the system factors, which are
representatives of groups. Other factors are
discarded. On the use of distance (proximity
measures, indicators of differences) between
features and extensive class are based methods of
multidimensional scaling. The basic idea of this
class of methods is to present each object as point of
the geometric space (usually of dimension 1, 2, or 3)
whose coordinates are the values of the hidden
(latent) factors which combine to adequately
describe the object. As an example of the
application of probabilistic and statistical modeling
and the results of statistics of non-numeric data, we
justify the consistency of estimators of the dimension of the data in multidimensional scaling,
which are proposed previously by Kruskal from
heuristic considerations. We have considered a
number of consistent estimations of dimension of
models (in regression analysis and in theory of
classification). We also give some information about
the algorithms for reduce the dimensionality in the
automated system-cognitive analysis
We are developing a new organizational-economic
theory - solidary information economy, based on
the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has
changed over time. Initially, we used the term
"nonformal information economy of the future",
and then began to use the term "solidary
information economy." In connection with
Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an
adequate term "functionalist organic information
economy". This article summarizes the first phase
of work on the solidary information economy. We
have analyzed the array of publications. The main
problems are discussed, the solution of which is
devoted to research related to the considered basic
organizational and economic theory. The founder
of the economic theory is Aristotle. We discuss
Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory
is based, in particular, solidary information
economy. We prove that the market economy has
remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in
modern economic science - justification of
insolvency of a market economy and the need to
move to a planned system of economic
management. We examine the impact of ICT on
economic activity. We develop the approaches to
decision-making in the solidary information
economy. On the basis of modern decision theory
(especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication
technologies people can get rid of
chrematistics and will understand the term of
"economy" according to Aristotle
We have considered the formation of the Russian
scientific school in the field of econometrics,
obtained its obtained scientific results, the
possibilities of their use in solving problems of the
economy, the organization of production and
controlling of industrial companies and
organizations, as well as in teaching. As
econometrics we consider a scientific and an
academic discipline devoted to the development and
application of statistical methods to study economic
phenomena and processes, in short, statistical
methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a
lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the
works by the author of this publication from the
beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics.
However, in this article we consider only the works,
in the titles of which we can see the word of
"econometrics". In our country the term
"econometrics" has become popular since the mid
90s. However, many publications and training
courses are still developed in the western outdated
paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm
of mathematical methods of economics, the new
paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian
science school in the field of econometrics operates
within the scientific school in the field of probability
theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N.
Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods. It is necessary to examine the main results
of Russian scientific schools in the field of
econometrics. We present the information on the
institutional design of national scientific schools in
econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the
Institute of High Technologies statistics and
econometrics
The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle.
The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of
Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions.
What can replace the "market economy"? We are
developing a new organizational-economic theory -
solidary information economy, based on the views
of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed
over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal
information economy of the future", and then
began to use the term "solidary information
economy." In connection with Biocosmology and
neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term
"functionalist organic information economy". This
article describes the main provisions of solidary
information economy, intended to replace the
market economy as a management tool. The main
problems are discussed, the solution of which is
devoted to research related to the considered basic
organizational and economic theory. We discuss
Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory
is based, in particular, solidary information
economy. We prove that the market economy has
remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in
modern economic science - justification of
insolvency of a market economy and the need to
move to a planned system of economic
management. We examine the impact of ICT on
economic activity. We develop the approaches to
decision-making in the solidary information
economy. On the basis of modern decision theory
(especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication
technologies people can get rid of
chrematistics and will understand the term of
"economy" according to Aristotle
Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI