Name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 19
In this article the size of material stream in bread-production chain with use of the theory of indistinct sets and application of risk component is predicted, the interval model of definition of efficiency is developed
The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel
in this context is understood as assessment of extent
of influence of the external environment (macro
environment) on activity of the integrated production
system. In the article the model and the technique of
calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an
adverse effect of the external environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system is
offered. All stages of creation of the model which
include representation of basic risk factors of
macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are
described, each of basic risk factors is a compound
linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a
basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of
compound factors to basic level is used. The
equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk
of an adverse effect of the external environment on
the integrated production system is presented. The
principle of recognition and interpretation of result
on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is
shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an
integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of
development for business system by definition of a
condition of the external environment is shown, and
depending on it the strategic scenario of development
of business system is offered
Relevance of developing Internet service for searching
travel companions for intercity and intracity trips
substantiated in the article. The existing services that
provide similar services were analyzed, their
shortcomings and advantages of the basic principles of
operation were identified and analyzed. Functional of
own service was disclosed in comparison to existing
ones. The variants to benefit drivers and passengers
were offered
In this article, the general structure of technologically
complete production chain of the integrated production
system of agroindustrial complex was considered.
Three different variants of creation of the production
chains are described. The main distinctions in activity
of chains consist in a source of raw materials. Any
technologically full vertical chain includes three stages
– production of raw materials, storage and processing,
realization. Each of stages is characterized by different
situations of the risk. Stages of process of functioning
of a production chain were considered in this article.
Also, the qualitative analysis of risk for all stages is
made and the results of this analysis are considered.
Results of this analysis became a basis for
improvement of stream model for determination of
efficiency of the technological chain taking into
account a risk component. In the article, the algorithm
of an assessment of efficiency of the technological
chain of the integrated production system taking into
account a risk component at the stage of creation of a
material stream is also described
The article describes the process of developing the
two-level technique for assessment of the missed
benefit during the landing and cultivation of perennial
plantings. The technique is developed for the
enterprises where the cycle of production of raw
materials breaks into several periods until the first
harvest. The choice problem of the most suitable
grades for the landing is relevant for such enterprises.
The first level of the two-level technique assumes
assessment of qualitative and quantitative
characteristics of grades with use of such tools as the
theory of fuzzy sets and the decisions tree. The results
of the first level are entrance data for the second level
where there is final assessment of a grade and
determination of the missed benefit rather potentially
possible at the choice of the recommended grade. In
the article also designated the importance of the raw
materials stage for the technological chain. It is shown
that, being consecutive structure, the technological
chain strongly depends on the first stage – a stage of
raw materials production. Minimization of the risk
situations at the first stage promotes strengthening of
the general risk tolerance of a technological chain
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of
an integrated indicator of risk of the internal
environment of the integrated production system are
described. Then the steps of creation of triangular
fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given.
At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
integrated production system was used. Further on the
basis of the developed model of internal risk the
interval model of efficiency of the integrated
production system is developed and described. In this
article the structure of a production chain of the
integrated production system of agroindustrial
complex was considered. In technologically complete
production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw
materials production, storage and conversion, sale of
finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from
previous stage, and at each stage various situations of
risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification
of the internal environment of the integrated
production system was considered in this article.
Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the
internal environment it is necessary to know quantity
of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk
for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm.
Also in the article the principle of recognition and
interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system on the
basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01
classificators is shown
QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND METHODS OF RISKS EVALUATION IN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Results of researches on quantitative evaluation of agro-industrial integrated production systems (IPS) risks with the regard of influence of external and
internal media are described in this article.
Particularly, quantitative method of calculation of integrated risk indexes of unfavorable influence of external medium on integrated production systems; model of determination of IPS effectiveness on the base of worked out models of calculation of integrated risk indexes and an equipment of slipshod great numbers theory; improved model of IPS effectiveness evaluation with the regard of risk component part on the stage of material flow creation have been described.
Principles of construction and stages of programming complex on analysis and risks assessment at the enterprises of agro-industrial complex, including design of general architecture of programming complex, logical structure of programming models, being the part of programming complex, physical structure of programming complex on the level of file system and algorithm of functioning of complex software are considered in the article.
Model and method of calculation of integral index
of influence of external environment of integrated production system were considered and interaction
of given index with choice of optimal strategy
of business-system development was shown in the article. Results of approbation of worked out model and method were casted.
The problem of the optimal distribution of production tasks is one of the important problems of effective planning of processes associated with production at the enterprise. However, the classical approach to solving this problem becomes of little use when the individual stages of the production process are performed sequentially and in the case when it is necessary to take into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. Purpose of work: to develop a methodology for minimizing costs in the distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. We built a multicriteria discrete optimization model for the distribution of production tasks according to the structure of production elements. One of the methods based on the proposed model is proposed, which allows to identify groups consisting of four elements in the production structure of the enterprise. The model is built using a network design which are pre-fractal graphs. The use of pre-fractal graphs allows you to naturally represent the structure of production and technological links of the elements of the production system of large enterprises. The results of the work is the developed effective methodology for solving the problem of the network distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of technological processes at the enterprise, the economic effect of which is to minimize resource costs. Based on the constructed model, we can develop automated means of monitoring and managing the production processes of a company