Scientific Journal of KubSAU

In this article the model and a calculation procedure of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system are described. Then the steps of creation of triangular fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given. At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system was used. Further on the basis of the developed model of internal risk the interval model of efficiency of the integrated production system is developed and described. In this article the structure of a production chain of the integrated production system of agroindustrial complex was considered. In technologically complete production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw materials production, storage and conversion, sale of finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from previous stage, and at each stage various situations of risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification of the internal environment of the integrated production system was considered in this article. Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the internal environment it is necessary to know quantity of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm. Also in the article the principle of recognition and interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system on the basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01 classificators is shown

Production and processing of grains formed in the national economic system of the country a number of cereals-governmental sectors, such as grain production, grain elevator industry, flour, cereals and mixed fodder production, which constitute the grain complex country. The significance and role of the grain as a commodity in the state economy can not be overestimated. This product, is totally liquid, which has a constant, steady demand at any time of the year, in any region. Ongoing measures to increase grain production and improve its implementation did not have a complex character, therefore, insignificant effect on the efficiency of the industry and the competitiveness of grain production. The shortagecovered by imports.According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP) to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone) technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of developing multicriteria economic-mathematical model of a comprehensive assessment of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops.

The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel in this context is understood as assessment of extent of influence of the external environment (macro environment) on activity of the integrated production system. In the article the model and the technique of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system is offered. All stages of creation of the model which include representation of basic risk factors of macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are described, each of basic risk factors is a compound linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of compound factors to basic level is used. The equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment on the integrated production system is presented. The principle of recognition and interpretation of result on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of development for business system by definition of a condition of the external environment is shown, and depending on it the strategic scenario of development of business system is offered

In the work we have developed a structural modeling of the optimal choice of information security devices in the design of automated systems in the protected execution in the transition to network centric methods of control of troops and weapons

The article presents results of the study to assess the effectiveness of credit funds in interacting agricultural (AES) and processing (PP) agricultural enterprises. The conducted studies are a continuation of the scientific work on the development of mathematical models of interaction of the enterprises of the AES and PP, are shown in the articles [1, 2, 3]. This article presents the authors’ developed set of models of management of credit funds of interacting enterprises of an agroindustrial complex. It includes mathematical models of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises considering the use of loan funds, as well as the assessment of the maximum amount of interest rate of the loan and the minimum selling prices of units of finished agricultural products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the processing plant taking into account credit obligations of the agricultural enterprise and a model for the calculation of the minimum selling prices of its finished products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the combined entity with all its loans. We have proposed a model to calculate the minimum selling prices of its finished products

Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation

The development of agro-industrial integration is an objective economic process involving, on the one hand, with the social division of labor and specialization, on the other - with the necessity of interaction between specialized sectors and modes of agricultural production. Agrarian enterprises come into this unification movement, seeking to reduce the risk, the occurrence of which is associated with the production depends on climatic conditions, natural agricultural products market, the dictates of the processing enterprises, the need to improve the competitiveness of production. Processing and service companies are also seeking to secure a stable income thanks to the raw material base, better use of raw materials, improving the quality of its products, decreasing the price and conquering markets. In most cases, the object is to integrate agriculture, and direct or indirect initiators often are non-agricultural plants and firms that concentrate the bulk of production and sales of AIC final product. As a result, the concentration of production results in savings on its scale, so-called technical-technological economy. Increased production expands beyond the optimal use of machinery and equipment. The more spread out are agricultural producers, so it is more difficult to realize their interests for scaling up. In the Russian practice we have developed a variety of organizational forms of integration differ in the nature of economic relations between the parties, the degree of independence of members of the business combination, the combination of centralization and decentralization. Conventionally, they are divided into associative - "soft" and corporate - "hard". By "soft" forms of association include associations, unions, non-profit partnership and a strategic alliance. They can function effectively at the interregional level. Hard type of integration ties characteristic of plants, corporations, trusts, holding companies. Agricultural credit consumer cooperatives (ACCC) is a voluntary association of individuals and legal entities residing or conducting their business activities in certain rural areas, on the basis of membership and monetary union shares in order to meet the needs of the members in the credit and other banking services

The article presents the criteria for evaluating the integration of researchers in the scientific community, based on an analysis of its citations. It is known, that one of the major components of interscientific communication (communication in the scientific community) is a citation of scientific publications (monographs, articles, etc.). According to the sociological approach, a scientist is a part of society, ie, scientific community; under scientific community we understand scientific mega environment (opposed to research groups of institutions and their structural units). Integration of a researcher to the community has many aspects: on the one hand, it is - the importance of his work to the scientific community, on the other hand, it is - the use of a scientist social mega environment for building for their personal and professional development to improve their research and improve the quality of its results (in the context of the article we will consider the second aspect). Methodological bases of the research: systematic, competence, sociological, and mega-system qualimetric approaches. Methods: modeling, methods of quality control, methods of set theory, relations and graphs. Evaluation (diagnostics) involvement of scientists in the scientific community - is more complicated metrology task than the evaluation of the significance of the results of its research activities. For the authors it is clear that a mature scientist (with a high level of research competence) should intensively use the potential of the social and the cultural science international environment (community) for their personal and professional development, to improve the efficiency of this research activities and the quality of this results. The proposed indicators can be considered as group indicator variables reflecting the level of the behavioral component of the research competence (scientist). Using social media for researcher’s potential – it is necessary, but not sufficient condition for productive research, producing goodquality scientific results. In this situation, negative prognosis is more significant: poor use of social media for researcher’s potential – is a "guarantee" for low productivity of this research activities and the low quality of this results. Only the combination of the highest levels of readiness for research (research competence) with high levels of other competences (as a whole - the social and professional competence, implying the presence of the professional skills of selforganization) can be the factors of successful research

The performance indicators of a trading company in physical and monetary terms is significantly affected by the types and volumes of purchased and sold products, and which she purchased suppliers and the consumers sold. However, the solution to the problem of choosing the rational range of products faces considerable cost of computational and human resources, and lack of baseline data, and in real dimensions this problem has no solution. The paper proposes such a solution is very economical in costs of different types of resources based on the application of information theory, cognitive and control theory

In the article, we present the analysis and improvement of existing methodologies for assessing the intelligence factor, taking into account its use of the Internet on a regular basis. Today, the use of the Internet in our daily activities and tasks become practice that is more common. The Internet has become a popular and most frequently used means of obtaining information quickly and in large volume. The authors suggested the presence of the Internet and its impact on the everyday use of psychological and intellectual life of the people that can be recorded because of user IQ scores. It is suggested here also gets its development in the search for and analysis of system models, allowing determining the numerical values of the parameters. Specifically, it is proposed to use a large variety of statistical data to clarify the unknown parameters that determine the levels of human intelligence, taking into account the impact of the Internet. These statistics include information such as the number of people with higher education, the number of Internet users, the degree of the Internet penetration in society, the most typical tasks that use the Internet users, and others. For the processing and analysis of the test statistics in the work proposed to use tools data mining, ie, data mining. We have also considered the most typical approaches Data mining, applied in similar research areas. We have analyzed what specific principles and methods can best approach to solving the problems of intelligence assessment indicators. The result of the article was a number of conclusions, in particular, the feasibility of applying clustering to analyze data in the field. Also, in certain cases, we provided the use of Kohonen neural network in the vector quantization network format. Methods: analysis of scientific literature and online sources of information on the current level in the field of IQ research; modeling; Methods systematization (tabular calculations and compilation); Experiment (real human test data). Methodological bases of research: a systematic approach (considering IQ in the form of a functional multi-component dependencies), probabilistic and statistical approach (provides guidance for constructing mathematical models linking together IQ and the influence exerted on it using the Internet, and to assess the reliability of a computer program ) qualimetric approach (determines the need multicriterion diagnostic influence of factors on the level of intelligence)