The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
This article discusses the problem of methodological
support for the management of the recovery cycle of
Russian industry, which is caused by the
transformation of factors affecting the achievement
of the required parameters of competitiveness. Given
the low level of technological development, it is
proposed to rely on the concept of sustainability in
determining the strategy of re-industrialization in
Russia. As a theoretical platform of such a concept,
the ideas of intellectualization of enterprise
management are proposed, which were developed in
the foreign theory of industrial management. Thus,
the main factors influencing the stability of the
enterprise were correlated with elements of the
"ADACOR holonic" -architecture of management,
inspired by biological and evolutionary theories. An
empirical analysis of the impact of self-organizing
factors using the technology of cognitive modeling,
which revealed a significant impact on the company's
sustainability of environmental assessment factors.
The state is revealed under which the effect of local
stability within the limits of the parameters
"Diagnostics of threats" and "Unpredictability of the
environment" is achieved, which makes it possible to
form a complex of management actions to regulate
these parameters using the coenoses tools. The
proposed interdisciplinary approach, based on a
system of regularities of the physical and
mathematical order, will greatly enhance the
effectiveness of forecasting and the predictability of
enterprise development
The article substantiates the necessity to use factors
that trigger development mechanisms and describe
risks at various stages of the organization's life cycle
in the process of developing organizational structures
for such large social and economic systems as
corporate integrated structures characterized by the
presence of diverse organizations in their structure. A
comparative analysis of approaches to the description
of the life cycle was conducted, as a result of which it
was determined that L. Greiner's model is incomplete
(it describes only the stages of development), and I.
Adizes' model contains a blurred system of factors.
To solve the problems, the model of I. Adizes was
chosen as the basic approach and the characteristics
of the stages of the life cycle of the organizations are
selected. To formalize the factors that trigger the
development mechanisms and describe the risks at
various stages of the life cycle of organizations, a
cognitive analysis and modeling apparatus was
chosen and a corresponding methodology was
developed. The implementation of the methodology
is represented by the example of the first stage of the
organization's life cycle ("Courtship"), which resulted
in the compilation of a list of factors, their mutual
influence on each other, the type of communication,
and the cognitive model. Analysis of the cognitive
model allowed us to determine the key factor that has
the greatest impact on the transition to the next stage
of development
The promising aspects of clusterization of economy of the border region of Russia – Repulic of Karelia, were presented in this article. Herewith, recommendations of using of experience of Finland in this sphere and for creation of a regional center of development of innovative high-tech clusters, which could provide the integration of the State, science, education and business potential, were given
At the regional level, clusters are considered as balanced
mechanism policy of innovative development
of the area, are favorable conditions for the effective
cooperation of regional actors and institutions of science,
government and business, the development of
various forms of public-private partnerships in the
area of innovation. The article reveals the problems
that currently limit the establishment and development
of clusters in Russia. Considered the clusters
that already exist in Russia around key industry sectors
and selected Russian cities with a high concentration
of activities in the field of research and development
in certain areas, and clusters, the creation of
which is planned in the near future. The classification
of these clusters according to the patterns of development,
geography, directions and purposes of creation
was given. The directions of development of
cluster policy enshrined in the concept of long-term
innovative development of the Russian Federation for
the period up to 2020 were defined. We focus on the
creation and development of cluster structures in the
agricultural sector in the Krasnodar region. In this
connection, the article reflects the main factors contributing
to the creation of a cluster and measures to
be taken by the state for its successful functioning
The article represents the author's view on the issue of
formation of innovative environment in the oil and gas
industry through clustering. The main task of the
author is, on the one hand, clusters’ role justification in
optimization of organizational structure of regional
fuel and energy complex. On the other hand, it is a
justification of the state's functions in ensuring the
intensification of innovation. To solve this complex
problem the author explores the approaches to the
definition of "cluster", adapting existing theories to
clustering of the regional to the oil and gas sector.
There are the structural-logic "Competitive diamond"
Russian oil cluster "and" Competitive diamond "oil
cluster Russia." The author 'classification of
innovations in the energy sector is developed. The
question of revitalization of the state’s efforts to build
a favorable innovation environment was considered
based on several logical promises. The first, public
policy objectives to stimulate investment in innovation
are substantiated. Second, we studied directions of
transformation of the global energy market and their
impact on the economic security of Russia as oil
exporters. Separately, the emphasis is placed on fiscal
policy in the energy sector
The article is devoted to the analysis of the evolution of
the concept of “cluster”. The origination of the cluster
theory and its development stages are traced in the
article. The research shows that cluster approach is the
most promising. A definition of “tourist recreational
cluster” is suggested
The article is devoted to the use of methods of cluster analysis, such as multivariate statistical, indistinct and neuronet, for an estimation of financial and economic condition of middle and small enterprises of building branch of Krasnodar region, and also to revealing of the reasons and laws of occurrence and development of crisis at these enterprises
Tendencies of development of a cloud computing in
business are considered in the article, percentage
indicators of development of cloud computing are
presented. Advantages of introduction of cloud
computing in a business area are listed. It's
a fact that cloud computing has theoretically
unlimited scale of existence of data, simplicity of
operation and financial availability of cloud services,
reduction of IT costs. For heads of the companies it is
the prospect of reduction of paper document flow and
a possibility of distant work with data arrays. The
statistics of volume of the Russian market of cloud
services is present. The forecast of development of
the world market of a cloud computing is made.
Advantages of implementation of cloud computing in
the sphere of business are listed; the main of them:
decrease of costs of IT departments, the expensive
equipment and the software. Any agrarian and
industrial company will be able significantly to
reduce not only financial expenses, but also it will be
able competently to redistribute human resources for
more effective work thanks to a cloud computing.
Realization of a cloud program service in 1C is
especially demanded in the Russian market in the
sphere of business of agrarian and industrial complex
because of the financial profitability and acceptable
technical characteristics. Cloud services significantly
help business functioning, simplifying work with
documentation and communication with the external
environment. Examples of application of a cloud
computing on medium and small business are
presented in the article
In the article, practice ways to realization of client oriented strategy in commercial, which are based on the using of results in marketing analysis of goal-oriented audience in the bank and creation of marketing information fund for bank clients valuation are considered