In this article, we have proposed a forecast of labor
resources by sectors of the labor market of the Russian
Federation until 2018 inclusive. The probabilistic
parameters of the dynamics of labor resources were
calculated using the considered model (articles [1-4]).
Further, these probabilities were used to estimate and
parameterize the trends of employed and unemployed
(with a known last place of employment) specialists in
each industry. For each sector of the Russian economy,
the type of trend that best approximates the long-term
(more than three years) dynamics of labor resources in
this sector was selected. It is shown that the forecast
error for 1 year is less than 1% using the selected trend
models. Further, identified long-term trends were used
in forecasting. Based on the results of the forecast of
the number of people employed in the sectors of the
Russian economy, the sectors were divided into two
groups. The first group contains sectors with a
significant change in the number of employed in. The
second group contains sectors, changes in employed in
which were insignificant. At the end of the article, an
example of an analysis of two sectors from the first
group is given. Causes of changes in the dynamics of
labor resources in the researched sectors of the
economy were identified. Ones of the main sectors of
the economy were considered in this example:
"Manufacturing industries" and "Financial activities,
real estate transactions, leasing and provision of
services"
In this work, a model is developed that describes the
formation of a plasmoid and streamers in a conducting
medium. To describe the contribution of the conductivity
currents, we modified the standard electrostatic equation
taking into account the vortex component of the electric
field. As a result of this generalization, the streamer
model is formulated in the form of a system of parabolictype
nonlinear equations. As is known, in laboratories it
is possible to create a plasmoid with a lifetime of 300-
500 ms and a diameter of 10-20 cm, which is interpreted
as a ball lightning. With high-speed photography, a
complex structure is detected, consisting of a plasmoid
and surrounding streamers. Within the framework of the
proposed model, problems are posed about the formation
of a plasmoid and the propagation of streamers in an
external electric field. In this model, the plasmoid is
considered to be a long-lived streamer. The range of
parameters in which a plasmoid of spherical shape is
formed is indicated. It is established that there are three
streamer branching mechanisms. The first mechanism is
related to the instability of the front, which leads to the
separation of the head of the streamer into two parts. The
second mechanism is associated with the instability of
the streamer in the base region, which leads to the
branching of the streamer with the formation of a large
number of lateral streamers closing the main channel of
the streamer to the cathode. In numerical experiments,
the third branching mechanism observed in experiments
connected with the branching of the plasmoid in the
cathode region with the closure of the space charge to
the anode through the streamer system was observed.
The similarity of ball lightning and plasmoid is
discussed. If this similarity is confirmed, then the
number of theoretical hypotheses concerning the nature
of ball lightning, currently more than 200, can be
drastically reduced to one described in this article
The article gives the description and the algorithm of
the simulation model SMDS "Potok" 1.0, designed to
calculate the parameters of distribution and
sedimentation of technological alluviums in
watercourses. The relevance of the simulation model
is due to the need to determine the integral indicators
(the volume of water flowing through the areas of the
plume with a predetermined suspension
concentration, the average layer of the silt, the
specific density of the bottom silt in the calculated
zone) when calculating the harm to water biological
resources from the implementation of various
economic activities in accordance with the
methodology of calculation of damage caused to
water biological resources approved by the order of
the Federal Agency for Fisheries No. 1166 of
25.11.2011. Usage of the simulation model of SMDS
"Potok" 1.0 will increase the reliability of
calculations in determining the damage to water
biological resources, as well as bring the calculations
of parameters of distribution and sedimentation of
technological alluviums in watercourses in
accordance with the current regulatory legal acts of
the Federal Agency for Fisheries
The main task in the analysis of time series is the
reconstruction of the dynamical system that generated
this series. To illustrate the nature of the behavior of a
dynamic system described by a nonstationary time
series, a «phase portrait» method is proposed. An
acceptable description of the phase space of a
dynamical system can be obtained if we take instead
of real variables of the system delay vectors
composed of the values of the series at consecutive
moments of time. Restoration in a given class of a
system of differential or difference equations is
performed based on the scalar time series of the
observed process. In order to eliminate the
measurement error and accurately represent the
position of the object in the current, future, or any of
the past moments, it is proposed to apply the Kalman
filter using the known mathematical model of object
dynamics
This article is devoted to the problem of network
attacks recognition, which is essential for providing
network security. A research of neural network
efficiency has been held. Such metaeuristic
algorithms as genetic algorithm, gray wolf
algorithm and firefly algorithm have been applied
for the neural network learning. The algorithms’
fundamentals have been described. Multilayer
perseptrone with sigmoid activation function has
been selected for the task of network attack
presence check. Various configurations of the
neural network have been tested in order to find the
optimal number of layers and neurons per layer,
which ensure the least error. Learning has been
performed by minimization of the average squared
error between the network’s output and its target
value with the help of the listed algorithms. Genetic
algorithm requires accurate parameter picking in
case of any network’s architecture alteration.
Moreover, it is not as fast as firefly and gray wolf
algorithms. Gray wolf algorithm appears to be the
most effective one. However, it loses its efficiency
if the number of layers is increased. Firefly
algorithm proves to be the most universal one.
Although it is less effective than gray wolf
algorithm, it provides the most exact output even if
the network’s structure is changed
The article proposes an approach to constructing a
methodology for modeling managerial situations in the
construction of real estate objects using a hierarchical
system and choosing a developer company to be
charged with the construction of real estate. A
comprehensive methodology has been developed on
the basis of which it is possible to forecast problem
situations that arise during the construction of a real
estate object and conduct a scientifically valid choice
of a developer company
The debate continues about reform of higher education
In the country. We offer our point of view regarding
the preparation of bachelors and masters on the
direction of "Control of the technical systems".
Department of automatic control systems leverages
variable disciplines of specialization and optional
subjects, forms a curriculum based on the needs of the
business environment of the region or commissioned
by a separate large enterprise. Students participate in
the modules of project activities, form new and
effective engineering solutions, to get skills of their
practical implementation with regard to effectiveness,
relevance and prospects of their further development.
The production practice is very important in the
preparation of bachelors and masters. To this end, the
agreement on cooperation in the field of improvement
of quality of preparation of students of SFedU
concluded with the company RealLab (www.rlda.ru).
It has allowed undergraduates to pass a work practice
at the enterprise, custom-making thematic tasks of the
enterprise on a contractual basis. Graduates of
magistracy successfully find a job at the enterprise,
providing thus strengthening of personnel structure. In
this study, we propose a technique of teaching of
bachelors and masters in "Control of technical
systems". The main thesis is to use the technique of
through projecting throughout the entire learning
process. The trajectory of training is built for the
student based on a module of project activity, training
and production practices. The student studies the
object, develops the control algorithm, programs it,
chooses a set of technical means throughout the entire
period of training with an exit to the protection of the
final qualifying work
This article analyzes the best practices of choosing the
optimal policy for replacement of vehicle fleet. The
problem of replacement equipment was revealed. For
each of these methods we gave objective function,
constraints. We have found the best method of optimal
plan of replacing the vehicle fleet in the company,
allowing us to obtain accurate, economically viable
new equipment purchase plan during a certain period.
We have selected a number of important factors that
influence the choice of payment method replacement
policy and built PivotTable methods and factors. The
selected as part of the research methodology will
significantly reduce the labor and time, which will lead
to an increase in productivity of the enterprise as a
whole. The article gives a practical justification for the
need to address the problem of choosing the optimal
policy of replacing the vehicle fleet
In the context of implementing programs on reducing budget expenditures for the social sphere utilities, it is urgent to intrude renewable energy sources into the practice of their energy supply. However, despite all their diversity, not all constructions based on renewable energy sources can be used under conditions of urban development. Besides, the mutable nature of the solar radiation coming on the Earth's surface requires specific forecasts and calculations of its intensity. Accurate estimation of the area solar energy potential of the generating plant proposed location allows not only to justify its parameters at the design stage, but also to predict its operating mode and to evaluate its technical and economic efficiency. The purpose of the article is to estimate the level of solar radiation for Volzhsky, Volgograd Region, at the initial stage of designing and justifying the implementation of power plants transforming renewable solar energy in urban areas. In the article, it is proposed to apply method for estimating the solar energy potential of at a specific geographic point, based on a combination of the calculation method for determining the solar radiation characteristics and actinometric measurements. Volzhsky of the Volgograd Region, like most settlements in the Lower Volga region, has a high solar energy potential: 1228.8 kWh / m² for the horizontal surface of the southern orientation of the receiving surface of power plants, which can be increased by 16.2% at its optimal orientation relative to the horizon and the sides of the world. However, the expansion of the utilization of the solar energy potential of the district may be limited to the location of the existing buildings and structures at which power plants may be located in urban development conditions
The article has indicated the problem of the growth of
document organization on the example of higher
educational institution FGBOU "Kuban state
technological University". Based on years of practice,
the author conducted a detailed analysis of activity of
service of documentary maintenance of management
of the University and detailed analysis of the structure
of the document taking into account the specifics of
the direction of the organization. The article sets main
tasks of service of the DOE, the actual problems of
transition to paperless documentation of the
organization's resources. We highlight problems of
management and use of documents, due to the steady
growth of documentary information. The major
factors, influencing the growth of volumes of
documents were given. Despite the rapid development
of electronic document management in practice,
electronic document duplicates the traditional
paperwork. However, today the approach to document
management is based on electronic technologies. The
study of the author offers solutions to the general
problem of reducing the volume of document
workflow in the modern world