Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
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Articles count: 155
For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen
As the economic component of state ideology of Russia we offer a solidary information economy. We have analyzed its main ideas and justified its use as a basic organizational-economic theory instead of
“economics”. According to the solidary information economy the modern information technology and decision theory allow, based on the “open network society”, to build information and communication
system designed to identify the needs of people and the organization of production in order to meet them
Control charts are proposed to use as a tool to detect
deviations in the controlling system. This proposal is considered for monitoring flight safety. Possibility of use in practice of airlines of a new indicator of flight safety level and a new method of its monitoring is discussed. As an indicator the ERC of ARMS group,
and as a method of monthly and weekly monitoring – a method of the cumulative sums are offered
This article gives a review of mathematical methods of construction and using of classifications. The main approaches to solving the problems of cluster analysis and grouping are discussed. We have also proposed global and local natural classification criteria. The methods of discriminant analysis
(diagnosis, pattern recognition with the teacher) are discussed in connection with the construction of generalized indicators (ratings)
The purpose of the article - to justify the need to develop the methodology of statistical methods as an independent scientific direction. The models of mathematician and applied specialist are presented. We have obtained the conclusions on teaching and
research and discussed five major unsolved problems of statistical methods: the effect of deviations from the traditional prerequisites; use asymptotic results for finite sample sizes; selecting one of the many specific tests for the hypothesis; organization of theoretical work in the field of statistical methods; conduct applied research and teaching of statistical methods
We analyze the probabilistic-statistical methods in the researches of Boris Vladimirovich Gnedenko – the academician of Ukrainian Academy of Science, which are very important for the XXI century. We have also discussed the limit theorems of probability theory, mathematical statistics, reliability theory, statistical methods of quality control and queuing theory. We give some information about the main stages of scientific career of B.V. Gnedenko, his views on the history of mathematics and teaching
Lusian - dichotomous data model as a finite sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with, generally speaking, different probabilities of success. The tasks of statistical hypothesis testing, classification, averaging lusians are discussed. In accordance with the requirements of practice the problems are considered primarily in the asymptotic behavior of increasing dimension, in which the number of unknown parameters increases in proportion to the size of data. The method of testing hypotheses on set of small samples and the theory of unbiased statistical estimates were proved to be useful
In the article we have analyzed the way of scientific and technical ideas creation to mass production. Particular attention is paid to the organization of commercialization of innovative projects using modern information technologies, especially Internet auctions. To adequately describe the actual processes, we have highlighted 13 stages in the development of the innovative project and put into consideration the diversity of its trajectories. We have also identified the need for specialized
structures (innovation centers), providing organizational-economic support to innovative projects, especially in the organization of expert estimates, conducting market research, developing business plans
The first statistical publication – the Fourth Book of Moses, “Numbers” in the Old Testament. We trace the development of ideas about the statistics until the twentieth century. The present stage of statistical methods began with parametric statistics by Pearson, Student, Fisher. Scientometrics of statistical researches provides an indication of the accumulated results. Nonparametric statistics appeared in the 1930s, applied statistics in our country - at the turn of 1970-80. We have discussed what gives applied statistics to national economy. Also we have told briefly about the history of statistical methods in
Russia (until Kolmogorov's time)
When developing management solutions with the
aim of joint consideration and comparison of
various factors, partial removal of uncertainty is
widely used ratings. In the theory of decisionmaking
in almost the same sense, we use the terms
"composite index" or "integrated indicator". The
article is devoted to the mathematical theory of
ratings as tools for studying socio-economic
systems. We considered, primarily, linear ratings
which is a linear function from a single (private)
indicators (factors, criteria), constructed using the
coefficients of importance (weightiness,
importance). The study discusses the factors
affecting the magnitude of the ratings. Three groups
of causes affect the value of a line ranking: the ways
of measurement of individual indicators, the choice
of the set of indicators; the values of the coefficients
of importance. We considered binary ratings when
the rating takes two values. To compare the
proposed rankings we use a new indicator of the
quality of diagnostics and prognostic power.
Significantly, in many managerial situations,
significant differences between objects are identified
using any rating. According to the fundamental
results of stability theory, the same source data
should be processed in several ways. Matching
findings, obtained using multiple methods, likely
reflect the properties of reality. The difference is the
result of a subjective selection method. When using
the results of the comparison of objects according to
several indicators (criteria ratings), including in
dynamics, very useful is the selection of the Pareto
set. We discuss the examples of the application of
the decision theory, expert evaluations and rankings
when developing complex technical systems