Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Loyko Valeriy Ivanovich

Scholastic degree


Academic rank

professor

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Kuban State Agrarian University
   

Web site url

Email

loyko@kubagro.ru


Articles count: 147

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3170 kb

THE RATIONALE FOR SELECTING THE METHOD OF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION

abstract 1221608004 issue 122 pp. 43 – 58 31.10.2016 ru 234
Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation
290 kb

OBSTACLES TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF EFFECTIVE ASSOCIATIONS OF THE ENTERPRISES OF A DAIRY SUBCOMPLEX

abstract 1231609097 issue 123 pp. 1423 – 1444 30.11.2016 ru 246
The article analyzes reasons that prevent the formation of stable and effective AIC associations of commodity businesses and processors of raw materials. Unbalanced process of the relationship between agricultural producers and processing plants have a negative impact on the economic situation of the organizations partners. Dictating low purchasing prices for raw materials by processing enterprises hinders profitability of agricultural producers. Purchase prices set by the processing enterprises of the dairy industry for milk, do not compensate for not only the production costs but also the losses from inflation. The rate of growth in energy prices is significantly higher than for livestock products, bringing its cost grew faster than sales prices. This leads to a dramatic reduction in milk production profitability. A paradoxical situation: on the one hand, dairies are facing an acute shortage of raw materials, on the other - exacerbated the problem of the sale of its milk producers at a reasonable price for them. The disparity between the purchasing prices for milk and retail prices for dairy products caused agricultural companies to seek alternative markets. Sharply increased sales of milk in the bottling of milk tankers, while many farms began to create their own recycling system
229 kb

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT MULTICRITERIAL ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY GROWING CROPS

abstract 1221608080 issue 122 pp. 1200 – 1215 31.10.2016 ru 248
Production and processing of grains formed in the national economic system of the country a number of cereals-governmental sectors, such as grain production, grain elevator industry, flour, cereals and mixed fodder production, which constitute the grain complex country. The significance and role of the grain as a commodity in the state economy can not be overestimated. This product, is totally liquid, which has a constant, steady demand at any time of the year, in any region. Ongoing measures to increase grain production and improve its implementation did not have a complex character, therefore, insignificant effect on the efficiency of the industry and the competitiveness of grain production. The shortagecovered by imports.According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP) to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone) technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of developing multicriteria economic-mathematical model of a comprehensive assessment of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops.
157 kb

DESING OF AUTOMATED SYSTEMS IN SECURED EXECUTION OF MILITARY USE

abstract 1261702037 issue 126 pp. 519 – 532 28.02.2017 ru 252
In the work we have developed a structural modeling of the optimal choice of information security devices in the design of automated systems in the protected execution in the transition to network centric methods of control of troops and weapons
750 kb

MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS ANALYSIS OF ACOUSTIC AND ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS ARE CREATED BY ACOUSTIC MAGNETIC DEVICE AND DETERMINATION OF SIMILARITY CRITERIA FOR THE CREATION OF NEW CONSTRUCTIONS OF ACOUSTIC MAGNETIC DEVICES DESIGNED FOR USE IN HYDROPONIC SYSTEMS

abstract 1171603031 issue 117 pp. 500 – 527 31.03.2016 ru 263
Conditions in which the work of acoustic magnetic device proceeds are complicated because of the number of interconnections. Solving problems under such conditions analytically is difficult because of many variables and complexity of some dependencies. The article describes the conditions in which the work of acoustic magnetic device, designed for nonchemical treatment of hydroponic solution, takes place. The criteria, establishing the initial state of the chains, containing mutual inductance, are analyzed. The work establishes the criteria relating the physical parameters of the environment with the output parameters of the device. The similarity of conditions of heat transfer on the surface of the device is provided, and the relation of the scale of temperature and power lost when heating the ferrite and winding machine is determined. The criterion of the heat transfer process is defined. The criterion, determining the relation of the environment temperature to the thermal mode of the acoustic magnetic device, is defined. The criterion of the conditions at the boundaries of the system and cavitating liquid is determined. It is found, that the cavitation area appears in the technological volume of liquid at the work of acoustic magnetic device. The criterial equation for geometric parameters of different types and constructions of the acoustic magnetic device is defined. In accordance with the task based on the third theorem of similarity, the group of criteria that provides the similarity of the model to the proposed original by all existing indicators, is selected
325 kb

THE TECHNIQUE AND THE MODEL OF THE RISKS ASSESSMENT OF MACRO ENVIRONMENT OF THE AGROINDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE INTEGRATED INDICATOR

abstract 1231609099 issue 123 pp. 1454 – 1471 30.11.2016 ru 265
The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel in this context is understood as assessment of extent of influence of the external environment (macro environment) on activity of the integrated production system. In the article the model and the technique of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system is offered. All stages of creation of the model which include representation of basic risk factors of macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are described, each of basic risk factors is a compound linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of compound factors to basic level is used. The equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment on the integrated production system is presented. The principle of recognition and interpretation of result on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of development for business system by definition of a condition of the external environment is shown, and depending on it the strategic scenario of development of business system is offered
297 kb

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERVAL MODEL OF THE EFFICIENCY OF AN AGROINDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE INTEGRATED INDICATOR OF RISK OF THE INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

abstract 1231609100 issue 123 pp. 1472 – 1487 30.11.2016 ru 265
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system are described. Then the steps of creation of triangular fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given. At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system was used. Further on the basis of the developed model of internal risk the interval model of efficiency of the integrated production system is developed and described. In this article the structure of a production chain of the integrated production system of agroindustrial complex was considered. In technologically complete production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw materials production, storage and conversion, sale of finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from previous stage, and at each stage various situations of risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification of the internal environment of the integrated production system was considered in this article. Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the internal environment it is necessary to know quantity of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm. Also in the article the principle of recognition and interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system on the basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01 classificators is shown
207 kb

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE RELATIONS OF PARTNERS IN MODERN FORMS OF INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL MANUFACTURERS AND PROCESSING-FORMING ENTERPRISES

abstract 1301706083 issue 130 pp. 1137 – 1159 30.06.2017 ru 296
The integration of producers of raw materials and its processors into the agro-industrial complex is connected with the social division of labor, its specialization, the need for interaction between specialized branches and types of agro-industrial production. Agrarian enterprises are united in an effort to reduce the risk, the emergence of which depends on the climatic conditions, the spontaneity of the agricultural market, the dictates of processing enterprises, the need to increase the competitiveness of production. In the Russian practice, there were various organizational forms of integration, differing in the nature of economic ties between participants, the degree of independence of the enterprises entering the association, the combination of centralization and decentralization of management. Conventionally they are divided into associative - "soft" and corporate - "hard." The "soft" forms of association include as-association, union, non-profit partnership and strategic alliance. They can effectively function at the interregional level. A rigid type of integration ties is characteristic for combines, concerns, trusts, holdings. Agricultural consumer cooperatives are voluntary associations of legal entities and individuals residing or operating in a certain rural area on the basis of membership and pooling of money units in order to meet the needs of members in credit resources and other banks services. The conditions for the emergence of sustainable integrated associations in the agroindustrial complex require qualitative and quantitative analysis based on mathematical modeling
233 kb

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTELLIGENT TECHNOLOGIES RESEARCH OF THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF LIFE QUALITY IN THE REGION

abstract 1221608001 issue 122 pp. 1 – 17 31.10.2016 ru 339
To increase the validity of conclusions about the impact of environment on quality of life we need to move from generalities to the application of quantitative modeling techniques. This requires the joint processing environmental databases and databases depicting various aspects of quality of life. These databases need to be handled not just together, but in a comparable form approach, technology and methodology; and we need to implement them in one software system. For the first time in the environmental studies it has been planned to be done with the application of the ASK- analysis and the system called "Eidos". In this work, we set the goals and the objectives of the application of the ASK-analysis to study the effect of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. The article reveals the urgency of this study; the requirements for the method of conducting the study, the choice of research method, the contents of the objectives of the study. The proposed work is at the edge of mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling of quality of life (which refers to mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics), resulting from expected synergies, consists in obtaining of new knowledge in these fields, that is relevant to both ecology and economy. This knowledge will make it more meaningful and justified for the application of environmental criteria and concepts in the economy
1063 kb

THE MODEL OF EFFICIENCY OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL CHAIN IN THE AGROINDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM CONSIDERING POSSIBLE RISKS

abstract 1131509074 issue 113 pp. 1014 – 1032 30.11.2015 ru 340
In this article, the general structure of technologically complete production chain of the integrated production system of agroindustrial complex was considered. Three different variants of creation of the production chains are described. The main distinctions in activity of chains consist in a source of raw materials. Any technologically full vertical chain includes three stages – production of raw materials, storage and processing, realization. Each of stages is characterized by different situations of the risk. Stages of process of functioning of a production chain were considered in this article. Also, the qualitative analysis of risk for all stages is made and the results of this analysis are considered. Results of this analysis became a basis for improvement of stream model for determination of efficiency of the technological chain taking into account a risk component. In the article, the algorithm of an assessment of efficiency of the technological chain of the integrated production system taking into account a risk component at the stage of creation of a material stream is also described
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