The present study was carried out in the view of the
fact that there is no more or less complete theory of
time series prediction memory to date. This determines
the urgency and necessity of the development of new
mathematical methods and algorithms to detect
possible potential predictability of the series with the
memory and the construction of adequate predictive
models. Classical methods of forecasting economic
time series are based on the mathematical apparatus of
econometrics. It is carried out basing on the
assumption that the observations that make up the
projected time series are independent, whereby to
perform the necessary subordination of the normal
law. The latter, however, is the exception rather than
the rule for economic time series that have so-called
long-term memory. Toolkit implementations of
nonlinear dynamics were the new computer
technology that made it possible to study complex
phenomena and processes “on the display screen”. The
proposed approach differs from the classical methods
of forecasting by the implementation of a new
accounting trends (evolution of centers and the size of
a bounding box), and is a new tool (phase portraits) to
identify the cyclical components of the considered
time series
The article presents and analyzes the assortment of
"Bumfa Group" with the methods of ABC analysis,
XYZ-analysis. It gives the description of the goods
offered by the organization, its customers and its
main competitors. The profile of competitive
advantages and disadvantages is compiled. It
presents the results of marketing research of
consumers acquiring products offered by LLC
"Bumfa Group" - the goods in terms of popularity,
the factors influencing the decision to purchase,
customers’ satisfaction in price, packaging and
product quality, the results of customers’choice of
new products to update the assortment, customers’
satisfaction in volume of incoming advertising
information about the products of "Bumfa Group."
The necessity to optimize the assortment of the
organization is founded. To achieve this aim we
developed a project to introduce new products in the
range of goods - wet wipes for office equipment. The
characteristics of the new product, the production
plan and performance indicators of the project are
supplied
In this study, the authors have put the issue of
development banking innovation through business
process re-engineering in commercial bank.
Application of the methodological approaches to the
study of sustainable development of banking activity
extends the boundaries of banking innovations. On the
basis of business process reengineering, the strategic
assets and liabilities management were proposed and
we tested their optimal structure. Increase of sales of
innovative field of credit, deposit and stock products
with high customer value for clients leads to increasing
economic value of added price of the banking Institute
Economic crisis is an integral part of a reproduction
cycle of modern economy. Their consequences show
both positive and negative influence on functioning of
certain subjects and economy in general. In the article
the methods of crisis management of enterprises,
influence of government bodies on reproduction
transformations, possibility of use of foreign
experience in the Russian practice of crisis
management are considered. The authors have
developed the mechanism of anti-recessionary
management for companies of the regional economy
The meaning of the definition of "import substitution" is clarified, import and export item features of the national economy are discussed, special attention is paid to the possibilities of expanding domestic and international markets by enhancing the competitiveness of industrial economies, the development of production with a large number of processing and high added value, increasing the traditional segment of high-tech products. It is noted that modern export orientation expands not only the market share of domestic products on foreign markets, but also significantly improves the competitive position of producing organizations in the domestic market. Potential geographical areas and countries-consumers of products of domestic production enterprises are highlighted. The article emphasizes the advantages to be gained from a substitution in the short to medium term with moderate protectionism by the state. The problems and possibilities of import substitution in agriculture and also the impact of past crisis, devaluation of the ruble on the processes of import substitution and export orientation, the role of the implementation process of import substitution in the security of the country are discussed. We offer solutions which will contribute to more successful implementation of the strategy of import substitution in manufacturing industries of agriculture; we have also made prognoses about short, medium and long term positive and negative predictive effects of import substitution and export orientation using retrospective of development of these processes
The goals of import substitution, import data and export resource features of the agrarian economy, through which you can generate significant competitive advantage are discussed. It is noted that the flight of the capital abroad creates jobs not for our economy, but for our competitors, that low interest rates on loans create obvious unequal starting opportunities throughout the domestic business. As a result the cost of imported food in value-chain terms reached in our country an enormous rate of $45 billion and that government realized the need of strengthening of food security, transferring of production of traditional kinds of products which form the basis of consumption of the population in our country, to the domestic market. It is noted that we need temporary moderate state protectionism and protection of the domestic market with the aim of modernizing the economy, attracting investors in the important field of production with high risks. The main problems and solutions that will help to further successful implementation of this strategy in the sectors of our economy are highlighted. It is proposed to establish a network of specialized information centers to support import substitution with a database of technological profiles of organizations. The author block diagram of the information support and import substitution is given. The importance of federal and regional programs functioning in the import substitution is noted. The author's plan for their implementation is given . Predictive modeling of short-term, medium-term and long-term positive and negative consequences of import substitution and export orientation are implemented. The authors stress that the substitution should be seen as a transition to export orientation of the agricultural economy.
The economic position of the agricultural sector of the Krasnodar region and the place of small business in economy of the region is considered. It is noted that in structure of agricultural production of the country today the region produces 8%, in gross regional product – about 13% of the total material production. The main share of agricultural production is still produced by agricultural organizations, in 2013, they generated more than 61% of total production, farm population - 24%, domestic farms - 15%. Regional plant growing today produces more than 72% of all agricultural products. In the sphere of animal husbandry, the authors recommend stabilizing dairy herd, to restore the normal functioning of pig farms, build and reconstruct farms and complexes, to increase the supply of quality feeds, to restore the productivity of animals and poultry, the quality level of the staffing industry. It is noted that the production of milk has become a pretty beneficial business; its profitability has risen to 37%. But meat production remains unprofitable due to weak motivation of investing, and problems with lending. There are also serious problems in technical support, especially to the sector of small farm management. As a result, producers suffer from significant financial losses due to the great timing of major agricultural companies. Attention is drawn to the unused opportunities of leasing machinery and equipment, negative policy of low wages for rural workers, and high number of farms which are in bankruptcy proceedings. To increase the stability of development of the agrarian economy, the authors recommend taking into account the peculiarities of financial-economic activity of small rural businesses
Effective management of innovation processes is an important prerequisite for economic growth and competitiveness of the country and can be achieved with the active participation of the state in the field of innovation system. The structural elements of the innovation system are the government, business, education and science, which interact on the basis of the legal framework of innovation. Innovative development is the consistent implementation of measures for the implementation of innovative activities by all actors of the innovation system with the involvement of the all major spheres of life and to ensure the effective interaction of all elements of the innovation system. Currently, the priority development of the Russian economy is a shift from raw materials to innovative. The Krasnodar region is among the regions with the most developed innovative potential. The region is actively developing a legislative framework aimed at regulating the innovation processes operate research and development centers, is strongly supported by local authorities. This article has identified the priority sectors for the development of the edge of innovation processes, analysis of the main indicators of innovation activity, defined constraints of innovation, defined terms of investment attractiveness of the Kuban and the development of innovative tools environment
The crediting activity of commercial banks is a precondition for successful competition of these institutions which leads to the increase in production of credited organizations, employment growth and solvency improvement of the participants of economic relations. Not only the improvement of the crediting technology is considered but also the development and the introduction of new methods of reducing crediting risks are observed. The realization of the small business potential in solving economic and social problems is absolutely impossible without its adequate financial and crediting support. In contemporary Russia the problem of financial support of small business development is particularly urgent. The need for crediting and development of small business in Russia is discussed in this article. The analysis of the main indicators characterizing the current state of crediting of small and medium-sized businesses is made, the SWOT-credit rating is given and the rating of banks providing loans to small business is shown. The main indicators of small and medium-sized business were considered, the analysis of the dynamics of the volume of loans provided to small business was made and the size of loan portfolios was discussed. The main reasons why banks refuse to lend to small business are ranked. On the basis of findings, the ways of solving the problem, in particular the reduction of the tax burden on small business, fixing the prices for the conclusion of contracts and the development of credit bureaus, are suggested.
In modern Russia with market economy, formation and development of business is natural and objective process. Small business exists as independent sector of market economy, providing basic requirements of national economy. The broad movement to public recognition of a private property in the modern market relations promotes manifestation of enterprise, riskiness, effectiveness. Small business in Russia, despite already quite long term of formation of the market relations, only gains steam, and its opportunities are inexhaustible. In small business, the huge potential playing an undoubted role in ensuring stability of social and economic development of society is put. The state support of small business is actual in modern reality as small business is most vulnerable and capable to the most dynamic development. The existing measures of the state support are constructed according to the principles specified in the legislation are extensive and many-sided. Nevertheless, there is a number of shortcomings which overcoming is capable to increase efficiency of the state support of subjects of small business. In this article the efficiency of the existing state support of small business is analyzed, the social importance of small business is emphasized, the main tendencies of its development are considered; the main conditions for competitive development of small business are specified