Scientific Journal of KubSAU

In this article, the method of normalized amplitude for predicting changes in key technological parameters of potentially dangerous object, which can lead to abnormal situations is used. The article provides guidelines for choosing the step between the values of the original time series and its length

We have allocated the basic sources of uncertainty in various industrial and economic situations. We have also considered the role and the tasks of forecasting in the management of industrial companies, particularly in the rocket and space industry. We have discussed the methods of organizational and economic forecasting - statistical, expert, combined, including foresight and given some suggestions for improving the forecasting and planning mechanisms for practical use when creating space systems

The work used methods of system analysis, monographic, structural and logical, economic-statistical, mathematical continuous and discrete, settlement and constructive methods as well as software tools of linear cellular automata. Usage of each method was based on their functionality, thus ensuring the accuracy of the findings and scientific positions. In this article we attempt to predict the dynamic behavior of the financial market elements, to use on the basis of a linear cellular automaton computer tools and methods of nonlinear science for adequate numerical reflection measure various risks, primarily financial and economic risks, as well as to show the power of computer graphics, computer mathematics system linear cellular automata, to emphasize an important philosophical role of visualization. The authors of the work programmed linear cellular automaton based on Python 2.7 software platform in the form of application. The program validates the predictive model on the adequacy of the selected coloring, is forecast error and builds polygons predictive model and input data on the same graph. The proposed research area is relevant to the processes in the financial and economic system, bringing in useful innovative elements in the generalized forecast that do not exist in continuous classical methodology

Using the of rate regulatory-adaptive status we can make a prediction for adaptation of patients to fixed teeth

The article contains an analytical overview of the causes of local washouts on hydraulic installations of Don highway networks. One of the major outlet structures of the main canal is the terminal resets in Sadkovskaya gully (Veselovsky reservoir 1115+79), with a maximum flow rate of 50 m3/sec, designed for irrigation and desalination of Veselovsky reservoir. To analyze the effect of the liquid on the bottom of the outlet structures we need to know the kinematic parameters of the liquid in the channel. Until now there are no universal correlations, which would allow calculating these parameters. The mathematical dependences allow analyzing the impact of water flow on the bottom of the spillway constructions of melioration canals. Modeling of local scour of channels is based on a thorough analysis of the causes of this phenomenon. The main ones are the kinematic parameters of the liquid, the speed and the propagation direction of fluid flow, structural features of the channel. The mathematical dependences allowed us to identify the following parameters that influence the degree of local scour at end spillway structures on melioration channels: the rate of flow, the degree of compression of the stream size, flow, shape, and movement of sediment, depth and shape of the supports in the plan and cross section, the shape of the hydrograph, the angle of the jet, duration of standing high water levels in Sadkovskaya balka, etc

On the basis of semantic information models examined the dependence of parameters of seismic activity on the gravity of celestial bodies. The regional semantic information model of climate is developed

Since there are many artificial intelligence systems, there is a need of comparable quality assessment of their mathematical models. For this purpose, these systems can be tested on the same database source data, for which it is very convenient to use a public database of the UCI repository. This work is aimed at the study and development of model practices of the database of the UCI repository to assess the quality of mathematical models of artificial intelligence systems

A method for predicting the wear rate of the drive roller chains in programs with internal teeth was developed. We took into account the way the friction in the hinge when forced transverse oscillation branches chain loop, which is based on probabilistic and statistical representation of the wear process

The article presents the analysis of variation of daily mean temperatures for the period 1977-2015. Clear tendency for their increasing in pre-sowing and especially in growing period is found. Heat supply of separate months in pre-sowing period increased in the row: April-February-January-December-March, and that of growing period – in a row: May-Juny-JulySeptember-August. Presence of slight correlation (from -0,256 to 0,268) of temperatures in winter-spring months with heat supply of coming spring summer months is found. It is shown that correlation of rice yield with temperatures of pre-sowing (DecemberApril) and growing (May-September) periods varies from weak to average (from 0,016 to 0,524) with a tendency to increasing from winter months to summer ones. Use of analog method made it possible to estimate roughly the nature of t upcoming growing season of rice in the current 2016: after the abnormally warm winter one should expect the value of heat supply of summer months to be close to normal. In the physiological sense, such distribution of summer temperatures is favorable for rice. Use of one of the most effective forecast methods – smoothing the time series (method of «moving decades») – made it possible to evaluate medium-term rhythms of heat supply of rice growing season and yields. It was found that after an abnormally high level of heat supply of the growing season, marked during last decade, we should expect a decrease in spring and summer temperatures - the next attack of the "cold" cycle. If this hypothesis is confirmed, then up to 2020, and later a natural tendency for decrease in rice yields, arising from the adverse factors of temperature, will continue which should also affect the economic efficiency of the industry as a whole

Inexpediency of use of probability of correct diagnostics as a quality indicator of diagnostic algorithm is shown. The new indicator - the prognostic strength based on Mahalanobis distance between classes is offered and studied. We have found asymptotic distribution of the prognostic strength; the way of testing of adequacy of its application has been specified. In a problem of testing of two simple hypotheses the prognostic strength connection is established with Hellinger distance