The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
Ragweed plant became quarantine malware on the
territory of Southern Russia. In the Krasnodar region it
has been extended to the territory of more than 4.62
million hectares. In the areas of its growth, it causes
great damage to agriculture. By developing a strong
root system and aboveground, it inhibits the row crops,
especially sunflower. Another problem with this weed
is producing large amounts of pollen that causes
allergic reactions in the majority of residents of the
province. This article discusses the importance of
using modern methods of ragweed oppression,
including chemical and biological methods in
sunflower crops
The article presents the possibilities of the GeoGebra dynamic geometry environment which can be used for conducting experimental research work. Computer experiment as a method of research serves to discover new knowledge, to test hypotheses, to involve students in the active process of learning new material. Freely-distributed GeoGebra's dynamic geometry environment which has a Russian version and a friendly interface that can be conveniently used both in classrooms and at home, is chosen as a computer technology for implementing a computer experiment. There are described possibilities of the tools used to implement the computer experiment. Among them are tools for detecting the metric and positional features of the object, obtaining information about the relationship between metric and positional features of objects, a parametrical task of changes of size, creation of experimental data tables. The experimental capabilities of the GeoGebra dynamic geometry environment are revealed by the examples of solving some elementary geometry problems about the simplest of polygons - a triangle that attracted the attention of both ancient scientists (Menelaus and others) and scientists who are closer to our time (Euler, Poncelet et al. ). Capabilities of the system for creating dynamic drawings, tables of experimental data and their application in conducting research work are demonstrated on the example of Menelaus' theorem presented in a more accessible form than in the textbook of geometry 10th -11th forms (authors L.S. Atanasyan, V. F. Butuzov, etc.)
The article briefly describes the completeness of the
organization of the investigation and its relevance to
forensic techniques. The peculiarities of the structure
of the technique of investigation of crimes against
family and minors were examined
The article deals with the formation of the didactic
competence of students at a pedagogical university in
the process of independent work. This article describes
some results of an empirical study on the formation of
the didactic competence of students at a pedagogical
university in the process of independent work
The article discusses the features of the personality of the victim in cases of crimes against life and health, motivated by ethnic, racial or religious hatred or enmity with victimological perspective
Objective: To improve the consistency and effectiveness
of strategic planning and forecasting in
modern conditions it requires development of the
existing classifications of types of planning, strategies,
forecasts and forecast methods. This study examines
the introduction to problems of spectral
analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of key
world and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is
devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated
manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro
industrial subcomplex. As well as to the practical
application of economic-mathematical methods
(based on spectral analysis) to control the economic
parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the
sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the
sugar production of the population not only of individuals,
but of the regions and the country as a
whole. Discussion: Procedures to identify and study
the dynamics of periodic components of the development
of the agriculture segment agriculture are
based on methods of spectral analysis of random
processes. The article describes the performed experiments
with various kinds of non-stationary time
series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar
subcomplex. The article presents results of numerical
experiments with the spectra of time series of
sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and
yield of sugar beet and sugar cane country. Systematic
ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis
were shown. The article also assesses the results.
Results: The algorithm developed by the author
for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was
implemented by the author in the context of a specific
software product, namely in MS Excel format.
The results of the empirical research confirmed the
possibility of practical use of developed models in
forecasting likely scenarios for the development of
sugar sub-complex in the interests of integrated production
systems. The results are illustrated by numerous
graphs based on real data. We have also
built projection of latent structures of sugar subcomplex in the macroregions. It is revealed that each of
the macroeconomic time series can contain at least
from 2 to 9 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and
strength of impact on the trend
Sunflower is one of the most important oilseed
crops, which are of great economic importance in
Russia and in the world. It is very adaptive crop
in terms of climatic conditions range, for that
reason it is cultivated on a vast territory of the
Russian Federation in various weather conditions.
Sunflower oil has high nutritional and taste
qualities, it is used numerously in food and is
applied in various fields of food industry. The
biologically active linoleic acid, phosphatides and
fat-soluble vitamins A, D, E and K, which are of
great nutritional value to humans, are contained in
the oil. According to its calorific capacity,
sunflower oil is on the first place among
vegetable oils. Due to biological characteristics of
sunflower, the Krasnodar region is the most
favorable region of the Russian Federation for
obtaining high and stable yields of this crop.
However, here the drought is observed during the
summer period and it affects adversely the
productivity and quality of sunflower seeds. The
increasing of resistance to unfavorable weather conditions is possible only based on detailed
study of physiological features of productivity
formation and seeds quality that is highly
important task in view of the current geopolitical
situation in Russia. One way of solving this issue
is the appliance of the growth regulators,
possessing anti-stress activity that improve the
quality of sowing seeds and increase the
productivity and plant resistance to stressful
environmental factors. These drugs include
growth regulator called Furolan, which was
created in KubGTU and is certified for use in
Russia. It is not toxic and is used in nano-dozes,
there is no its residual quantities in the products
and environment. Furolan has a positive effect on
physiological and biochemical processes,
improves the productivity of plants, their
resistance to unfavorable growing conditions by
increasing the resistance to dehydration as well as
to the risk of fungal diseases
The created hybrids with new lines and testers
were studied in 2014-2015, in the conditions of
the central zone of the Krasnodar region and the
Central Black Earth Region (Voronezh and
Belgorod regions). As a parent forms for
selection of early ripening and Medium early
corn hybrids there were used lines of various
groups of ripeness of the ident heterosis group:
Kr 714 Kr 740 Kr 757 Kr 651 Kr and 602. All of
these lines had high combining ability, and the
line 602 Cr was used as a donor for a quick return
of moisture from the grain when ripening. With
the participation of the lines from the collection
of the Institute and the donor line, we have
created four hybrid combinations on the basis of
which, the selection was received by the five-year
selection of new source material for breeding new
hybrids of corn. The assessment of comutiny
capacity of new lines was performed using a linetesters
of the genetic institute collections of
721MV Cr, Cr 801MV, Kr 654 Kr 244MV, Cr
602MV, Kr and Kr 802MV 752. Lines testers
were represented by a heterosis group of
Lancaster, Stiff Stalk Synthetic and wide lines
with a genetic basis. According to the guidelines
of the State strain testing of crops, and as a result
of the field experiment, we have calculated the
energy savings for new early maturing corn
hybrids in comparison with the standard ones.
Saving energy for equivalent fuel from new
hybrids of corn comparing to the standard for 1
ha of crop was due to their grain productivity and
varied depending on the conditions of the
Voronezh region from 81.4 to 101.5 kg, in the
Krasnodar region it was 79,0-97,9 kg
When combustion of fuel in thermal power plants,
combustion products are formed, which contain: fly
ash, particles of unburnt pulverized fuel, sulfuric and
sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, gaseous products of
incomplete combustion, sodium salts, soot particles,
calcium dioxide, etc. Getting into the atmosphere, they
cause great harm to the components of the biosphere.
The article presents a laboratory analysis of industrial
emissions into the atmosphere of 1-7 power units for
2015 and 2016 at Novocherkassk State District Power
Plant. The components NO2, NO, CO, SO2, C (soot)
have been determined. It is established that for the
whole observed period of excess of maximum
permissible emissions was not revealed. Emissions of
each of the components are within the same level and
are stable